The political landscape in Kashmir has always been complex and multifaceted, reflecting the region’s unique historical, cultural, and social context. Recent conversations with a diverse group of individuals from the Baramulla parliamentary constituency reveal a significant shift in political attitudes, particularly concerning the election of Er Rashid. This shift highlights a broader trend where traditional political allegiances are being questioned, and there is a growing desire for new approaches and leadership styles. This article explores the reasons behind this change and the implications for the future of Kashmir’s political society.
A Desire for Change and the Role of Emotional Voting:
In the recent elections, a notable number of voters supported Er Rashid, a candidate who has been a vocal critic of the mainstream political establishment in Kashmir. However, conversations with youth, middle-aged individuals, and older political workers suggest that many of these voters are now reflecting critically on their decision. Some describe their vote as a “mercy vote,” cast out of sympathy rather than genuine support for Rashid’s policies or leadership. This indicates a complex emotional landscape where voters may feel disconnected from traditional political narratives and are searching for alternative voices, even if those choices are not fully aligned with their values or aspirations.
The concept of emotional voting, where decisions are influenced more by sentiments than by a rational evaluation of policies, is not new. However, in the context of Kashmir, this phenomenon takes on a unique dimension. The region’s tumultuous history and ongoing political uncertainty have created an environment where emotional responses can significantly shape electoral outcomes. For many, voting for Rashid was an act of rejecting the perceived high-handedness of traditional political players. It was a way to express frustration and a desire for change, even if it meant supporting a candidate they later reconsidered.
Re-evaluating Political Choices and Alienation with Central Policies:
The reflection on recent voting behavior reveals a critical self-awareness among the electorate. Many voters now believe they made a mistake by electing Er Rashid, suggesting that their initial support was not rooted in a deep-seated belief in his vision or capabilities. This re-evaluation is crucial as it indicates a more discerning electorate willing to critically assess their political choices and the outcomes of those choices.
A significant aspect of this reassessment is the alienation with central government policies, a genuine reason for discontent among the electorate. However, those who sided with the central government have also failed to push the development agenda effectively. They appeared hesitant on critical issues like the abrogation of Article 370 and other sensitive matters. The ambiguity and lack of clear communication on the impact of these policies, particularly in the context of ongoing violence and unrest, have left many voters feeling uncertain and disillusioned.
Moreover, the overestimation of support by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Kashmir has also been a point of contention. The BJP claimed a membership of 7 lakh party workers, which appears to have been an exaggerated assessment. This miscalculation has further contributed to the growing disenchantment with the political process, as it highlights a disconnect between party leadership and the on-ground realities in Kashmir.
The situation is similar in the Srinagar parliamentary constituency, albeit with slight differences. Here, the emotional Shia vote was divided but largely favored Aga Ruhulla. Despite the growing positive impact of the central and UT administration’s friendly approach toward the Shia community, there remains a lack of representation and advocacy for this group within the government initiatives. The youth in Srinagar were attracted to Waheed’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which significantly impacted the election outcome, causing Ashraf Mir to lose his deposit.
The Role of Sajad Lone and the Limitations of Traditional Politics:
Sajad Lone, a prominent political figure in Kashmir, has also faced criticism for relying heavily on muscle power and financial influence, which the beneficiaries of his tenure have injected into his People’s Conference. While he has garnered significant support from the traditional political base, including many older constituents, he has struggled to resonate with the youth, especially first-time voters in the Baramulla constituency. This demographic’s lack of support for Lone underscores a critical generational divide in Kashmir politics, where younger voters are seeking leaders who reflect their aspirations and concerns, rather than those aligned with the status quo.
In the Anantnag constituency, the political dynamics have been influenced by the Pahari community, who were recently granted Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. However, religious dynamics also play a crucial role, with Main Altaf being a key religious leader for the Gujjar-Bakerwal community. The National Conference (NC) enjoyed substantial support from Kashmiri-speaking voters, while Mehbooba Mufti attempted to emotionally connect with the electorate. Nonetheless, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) did not publicly support her, a major factor contributing to her loss to Altaf Larvi.
The regret expressed by some voters over their previous choices reflects a broader desire for change and a move away from traditional political structures. For Kashmir’s political society to truly evolve, it must embrace this call for a new paradigm that addresses the real needs and aspirations of its people, while also fostering a more harmonious relationship with the Indian state. The future of Kashmir’s politics lies in the hands of its people, who are increasingly demanding a political environment that respects their rights, values, and aspirations.
The Need for a New Dimension in Politics:
The current political dynamics in Kashmir highlight the urgent need for a new dimension in politics, one that goes beyond the traditional paradigms and addresses the real concerns and aspirations of the people. This new dimension should focus on several key areas:
1. Inclusive Governance: There is a need for political leaders who genuinely represent the diverse demographics of Kashmir and who are committed to inclusive governance. This means actively engaging with youth, marginalized communities, and those who feel disillusioned with the current political system.
2. Transparent and Accountable Leadership: The electorate is increasingly demanding transparency and accountability from their leaders. The new political dimension must prioritize these values, ensuring that leaders are answerable to the people and that their actions are in the public interest.
3. Focus on Development and Peace: For many in Kashmir, the primary concerns revolve around economic development, education, and healthcare, alongside the quest for lasting peace. A new political narrative that prioritizes these issues over divisive rhetoric will likely resonate more with the masses.
4. Bridging the Trust Deficit: The traditional political system in Kashmir has been marred by a significant trust deficit between the public and the political class. Building trust will require consistent, sincere engagement and a track record of delivering on promises.
The Role of the Indian State:
The Indian state’s role in shaping this new dimension is also critical. For years, the central government’s policies have been a source of contention in Kashmir. As the region continues to navigate its complex relationship with New Delhi, there is a growing call for policies that are more sensitive to the local context and that seek to genuinely integrate the people of Kashmir into the national mainstream without undermining their unique identity.
The evolving political landscape in Kashmir, as evidenced by the changing attitudes of voters in the Baramulla, Srinagar, and Anantnag constituencies, underscores the need for a new dimension in politics that is inclusive, accountable, and focused on genuine development. The regret expressed by voters over their previous choices reflects a broader desire for change and a move away from traditional political structures. For Kashmir’s political society to truly evolve, it must embrace this call for a new paradigm that addresses the real needs and aspirations of its people, while also fostering a more harmonious relationship with the Indian state. The future of Kashmir’s politics lies in the hands of its people, who are increasingly demanding a political environment that respects their rights, values, and aspirations.
