“Zulmat ko ziya, sarsar ko saba, bande ko Khuda kya likhna,
Pathar ko gehra, deewar ko dar, kargus ko huma kya likhna.”
In the ever-evolving political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir, the entry of Engineer Rashid has been a significant development, particularly in the northern regions of the state. Rashid, a former Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) from the Langate constituency, has made a name for himself as a grassroots leader with a focus on local issues. His rise to prominence signals a noticeable shift in the power dynamics of North Kashmir, and this is especially apparent in the way he has managed to challenge prominent political figures like Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone, both of whom have seen their influence wane after losing the parliamentary elections.
Engineer Rashid’s influence is not confined to North Kashmir alone. His political movements have begun to make waves in Central Kashmir, including Ganderbal, where the established political order is being questioned. His rise, coupled with his ability to tap into the concerns of the common people, has made him a force to be reckoned with. Rashid represents a new breed of politicians who focus more on the ground realities rather than the high-level political engineering that traditional parties have been accused of engaging in.
What makes Rashid’s ascent particularly interesting is how it has energized the electorate. Voters, especially in North and Central Kashmir, seem to resonate with his no-nonsense approach to politics and his emphasis on addressing the concerns of the marginalized sections of society. The upcoming elections are expected to be a litmus test for his political clout, and his ability to secure votes from both rural and urban constituencies will be critical to his success.
The Fragility of Democratic Trust: Election Commission’s Role
One of the most remarkable aspects of the upcoming elections is the role of the Election Commission (EC). The credibility gained by the EC during the recent parliamentary elections has played a crucial role in boosting the confidence of the electorate. Voters, who had previously been disillusioned by allegations of rigging and political manipulation, are beginning to place their faith in the democratic process once again. The EC’s transparent and efficient handling of the elections has been widely acknowledged, and this has encouraged voters at all levels to participate in the democratic process.
However, this newfound trust is fragile. The political landscape in Kashmir has been riddled with instability for decades, and any small incident could undermine the credibility that the EC has painstakingly built. It is imperative that the EC continues to maintain its impartiality and transparency throughout the electoral process, ensuring that no party or candidate can exploit the system to their advantage. A small misstep could have far-reaching consequences, not just for the elections, but for the overall democratic process in Kashmir.
Voter Turnout in Srinagar: A Barometer of Political Sentiment
Historically, voter turnout in Srinagar has been a reflection of the political mood in the region. In 1996, voter turnout for all eight constituencies of Srinagar was 19.24%. This was a time when the region was emerging from the shadows of insurgency, and there was cautious optimism about the democratic process. However, by 2002, voter turnout had drastically declined to just 5.06%, a period marked by deep political disillusionment and ongoing unrest. The elections were held under the shadow of militancy, and many people boycotted the polls, either out of fear or frustration with the political system.
The situation improved slightly in the 2014 elections, with voter turnout rising to 21.67%. This was seen as a positive sign, indicating that the people of Srinagar were beginning to re-engage with the democratic process. Now, as we approach the 2024 elections, there is cautious optimism once again. Political analysts suggest that voter turnout in Srinagar could exceed 50%, which would be a remarkable achievement. Such a high turnout would indicate a significant shift in the political landscape, with more people willing to engage with the electoral process and make their voices heard.
Jammu’s Consistent Voter Turnout: A Contrast to Kashmir
While voter turnout in Srinagar has fluctuated dramatically over the years, the situation in Jammu has been far more consistent. Voter turnout in Jammu has always been in line with other states in India, reflecting the region’s stable political engagement. In 1996, voter turnout in Jammu was 59.85%, slightly declining to 56.60% in 2002, but it rose significantly to 72.75% in 2008. These figures highlight the stark contrast between the political engagement in Jammu and Kashmir, with Jammu remaining a bastion of democratic participation.
As we approach the 2024 elections, it is expected that voter turnout in Jammu will remain at par with previous elections, reflecting the region’s strong democratic foundations. The consistent voter turnout in Jammu serves as a reminder that despite the challenges faced in Kashmir, democratic engagement can remain strong in regions that are not as affected by conflict and insurgency.
The Role of Media: A Beacon of Fairness
In the current election campaign, the media has played a critical role in shaping public opinion and ensuring that the democratic process remains transparent. One of the most notable aspects of this election is the absence of bias in media reporting. Unlike previous elections, where certain candidates or parties received more coverage than others, media outlets in 2024 have made a concerted effort to provide equal coverage to all candidates. This has fostered a sense of fairness and transparency, which is essential in a region where trust in the political system has been historically low.
The positive role of the media cannot be overstated. By providing balanced coverage, media outlets have allowed voters to make informed decisions based on the policies and platforms of the candidates, rather than being swayed by political propaganda. This is a crucial development in a region like Kashmir, where the media has often been accused of either underreporting or misreporting events, leading to a skewed understanding of the political landscape.
Challenges for Independent Candidates
Despite the overall positive developments in the current election campaign, there is one issue that continues to stand out: the treatment of independent candidates. Due to security concerns, many independent candidates are being housed in secure hotels, limiting their ability to campaign freely. While this is a necessary measure given the security situation in Kashmir, it has also raised concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. Established politicians with access to resources and networks are able to campaign freely, while independent candidates are restricted in their movements, particularly in the evenings when voters are more receptive to political outreach.
This situation, though understandable from a security standpoint, is neither healthy nor democratic. Independent candidates, who are often new to the political scene and lack the resources of established parties, need more time and space to connect with voters. Restricting their movements limits their ability to engage with the electorate and present their platforms. In a region where democratic values have been undermined by terror influence for decades, it is crucial that new voices are given the opportunity to thrive.
A New Dawn for Democracy in Kashmir
As we approach the results of the 2024 elections, the stakes have never been higher. The political future of Kashmir is on the line, and the democratic process is being tested like never before. With voter turnout in Srinagar expected to exceed 50%, and strong participation in Jammu, it is clear that the people of Jammu and Kashmir are reclaiming their voice. The democratic aspirations of the people are evident, and this election marks a pivotal moment in the region’s history.
The voters’ desire for peace, prosperity, and change is clear, and the results of the October 8 elections will surprise the world. This time, neither political engineering nor the symbolic gestures of old political players will sway the outcome. The people are ready to embrace a new era of democracy, one that is free from fear and rooted in the aspirations of the common man.
“Ae mere watan ke fankaro, zulmat pe na apna fan waro,
Yeh mehal saraon ke baasi qatil hain sabhi apne yaaro,
Virse mein humein yeh gham hai mila, is gham ko naya kya likhna,
Zulmat ko ziya, sarsar ko saba, bande ko Khuda kya likhna.”
