Danishwar Hameed
The sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi has sent ripples through Iran, a country where the presidency, though secondary to the Supreme Leader’s authority, plays a critical role in governance and policy implementation. The immediate emotional response is one of tragedy rather than political upheaval. To understand the implications fully, we must delve into Raisi’s life, his political journey, and the broader context of conservatism in Iran.
Who Was Ebrahim Raisi?
Ebrahim Raisi was born in 1960 in Mashhad, Iran’s holiest city, into a clerical family. This background set the stage for his deep-rooted connections to the Islamic Republic’s religious and political frameworks. Educated in Islamic law and jurisprudence at the prestigious Qom seminary, Raisi studied under significant figures, including Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Iranian Revolution and founder of the Islamic Republic.
Raisi’s career trajectory was marked by his staunch conservative views and his long-standing association with the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This relationship proved crucial in his rise to power. His judicial career included significant roles, such as the head of the judiciary, where he became known for his hardline stance on various issues, aligning closely with the conservative principles upheld by the ruling establishment.
Raisi’s Path to the Presidency
Raisi first entered the presidential race in 2017, facing off against incumbent President Hassan Rouhani. Despite a strong campaign, Raisi was defeated, as the electorate favored Rouhani’s more moderate and reformist agenda. However, this loss did not mark the end of Raisi’s political ambitions. Instead, it served as a stepping stone, consolidating his base and strengthening his political resolve.
In 2021, Raisi ran again, this time amidst a very different political landscape. The reformist wave had receded significantly, and public dissatisfaction with economic hardships and political stagnation provided fertile ground for Raisi’s conservative platform. He won the election decisively against reformist candidate Mohsen Mehralizadeh, securing his position as Iran’s eighth president.
The Role of the President in Iran
While the Supreme Leader holds the ultimate authority in Iran, the presidency is far from a mere ceremonial role. The president oversees the executive branch, influences domestic and foreign policy, and plays a vital role in managing the country’s economic affairs. Raisi’s presidency was particularly significant given his close ties to the Supreme Leader, suggesting a period of potential policy alignment and stability.
However, with Raisi’s sudden demise, the immediate question arises: what next? Despite the high stakes of the presidential office, experts agree that no drastic political or policy shocks are anticipated. The structures and ideology guiding Iran remain firmly in place, deeply rooted in the conservative doctrines that have shaped the country since the 1979 revolution.
Conservatism in Iran
To understand the continuity expected after Raisi’s death, it’s crucial to grasp what conservatism means in the Iranian context. Since the Islamic Revolution, Iranian politics has oscillated between two poles: conservatism and reformism. Conservatism, in this sense, refers to a commitment to the principles of the revolution, including a strong theocratic governance model, resistance to Western influence, and the preservation of Islamic cultural and social values.
Raisi embodied these principles, and his administration was characterized by policies aimed at reinforcing the Islamic Republic’s ideological foundations. This included a tough stance on social and cultural issues, a resistance to economic liberalization, and a foreign policy that emphasized strategic autonomy and resistance to Western pressures, particularly from the United States.
The Immediate Impact of Raisi’s Death
For many Iranians, Raisi’s death is a personal and national tragedy rather than a precursor to political instability. The country’s governance model is designed to withstand such shocks, with power structures deeply embedded within the conservative establishment. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, remains the central figure in Iranian politics, ensuring continuity and stability.
In the short term, an interim president will be appointed, likely someone from within Raisi’s close circle or the conservative elite, to maintain policy continuity until a new election can be held. Given the nature of Iranian politics, this transition is expected to be smooth, with the conservative establishment working swiftly to fill the leadership vacuum.
Long-Term Implications
While the immediate aftermath may not herald significant change, Raisi’s death could have subtle long-term implications. The selection of the next president will be a crucial moment for Iran, potentially setting the tone for the country’s future trajectory. If a hardline conservative successor is chosen, the policies and ideological stance of Raisi’s administration will likely continue unabated.
However, the loss of a prominent figure like Raisi could also open space for emerging conservative leaders who might bring new approaches within the same ideological framework. This could lead to shifts in domestic policies or adjustments in Iran’s approach to international relations, especially in the context of ongoing negotiations and regional dynamics.
Conclusion
Ebrahim Raisi’s death marks a significant moment in Iran’s political landscape, but it is unlikely to trigger immediate upheaval. The country’s robust political structures and the Supreme Leader’s overarching authority ensure continuity. As Iran navigates this transition, the focus will be on maintaining stability and preparing for the next phase of leadership under a new president who will undoubtedly continue to shape the nation’s future within the established conservative paradigm. For Iran, this is a moment of mourning, reflection, and cautious anticipation.
