Could August 14 Be Pakistan’s Last Independence Day?
Colonel Dev Anand Lohamrod
On August 11, 2025, Washington dropped a political bombshell. The United States officially branded the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and its most lethal wing, the Majeed Brigade, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). For Islamabad, it was a rare moment of diplomatic triumph. For Baloch separatists, it was a betrayal that could decide the fate of their decades-long struggle. And for the region—it could mark the beginning of Pakistan’s most dangerous political storm since 1971.
This move is more than a counter-terrorism label. It’s a signal to the world that Balochistan’s mineral-rich soil and strategic location have returned to the centre of global power games.
Pakistan Celebrates, Balochistan Condemns
Islamabad wasted no time calling it proof that its security concerns are valid. But Baloch leaders saw it as the U.S. siding with their oppressor. “We are victims, not terrorists,” said Mir Yar Baloch, warning that the designation would embolden Pakistan’s crackdown. He also hinted at a potential alliance with America—if Washington ever recognises Baloch independence. Pakistan continues to accuse India of backing the BLA.
Strategic Shockwaves
The U.S. decision changes three things instantly. It reopens counter-terrorism cooperation between Washington and Islamabad after years of mistrust. It lets Pakistan claim an international endorsement of its internal security policy. And it may smooth the path for massive U.S. investments in Balochistan’s oil, gas, and mineral reserves.
The Majeed Brigade’s track record reads like a hit list of Pakistan’s most sensitive assets. Formed in 2010 and named after separatist leader Majeed Baloch and his son, the unit is notorious for suicide bombings and precision strikes. Key operations include the 2011 Quetta bombing, the 2020 Karachi Stock Exchange assault, the 2024 Quetta railway station blast, and the 2025 Jafar Express hijacking. Many of these targeted Chinese nationals and CPEC projects—hitting Pakistan where it hurts most economically.
Roots of a Rebellion
Balochistan’s separatist fire has burned for over 75 years. In 1947, the princely state of Kalāt declared independence. Less than a year later, Pakistan annexed it—a move Baloch leaders still call forced. Major uprisings erupted in 1958, 1962, and 1973–77, the last leaving thousands dead and hundreds of thousands displaced.
The grievances are more than political—they’re economic. Balochistan’s vast copper, gold, lithium, rare earths, and fossil fuel reserves feed Pakistan’s industries, yet its people remain the poorest in the country. Literacy rates are 20% lower than the national average, and unemployment is 15% higher.
Why the U.S. Acted Now
The announcement came days after Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munir’s visit to Washington, where discussions reportedly covered counter-terrorism, mineral access, and investment. Reko Diq’s massive copper-gold reserves are crucial for both defence industries and electric vehicle batteries. U.S. mining companies are already negotiating with Islamabad, and the FTO designation helps secure those deals.
The shadow of U.S.-China rivalry is unmistakable. Gwadar Port—CPEC’s crown jewel—sits in Balochistan, giving China a key maritime foothold. The Majeed Brigade’s repeated strikes on Chinese projects have been a thorn in Beijing’s side. By acting against these groups, Washington sends a double message: protect investments and keep Pakistan strategically aligned.
Raising the Stakes
Ironically, while the designation seeks to weaken the Baloch armed struggle, it has reignited global conversation about their cause. If Baloch separatists win powerful foreign allies, Pakistan could face the unthinkable: losing its largest and most resource-rich province.
That’s why whispers are growing that August 14, 2025—Pakistan’s Independence Day—might be its last as a united state. If unrest in Balochistan converges with crises elsewhere, the green flag could fly over a smaller Pakistan next year.
Multiple Fronts, One Crisis
Pakistan is fighting fires in three corners. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has inflicted serious army losses, reportedly with tacit Afghan support. India’s push to reclaim Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is gaining momentum. Add a surging separatist wave in Balochistan, and Pakistan’s military is stretched thin.
The Bigger Picture
For Washington, this is a chess move—securing resources, influencing the China-Pakistan equation, and nudging Islamabad back into alignment. For Pakistan, it’s a diplomatic card to play internationally, but also a dangerous reminder that Balochistan’s rebellion has not been silenced—only redefined.
The Countdown to August 14
The real test will come in the months ahead. Will this U.S. action cement Pakistan’s territorial integrity, or will it trigger the very fragmentation its leaders fear? The answer may not just decide the fate of Balochistan—it could rewrite South Asia’s map.
When the Pakistani flag is raised on August 14 this year, the celebrations may carry an unspoken question: Is this the last time we raise it over this land?
