A Hollow Victory in the Shadow of Apathy and Dynasties
I Ahmed Wani
The Budgam by-election on November 11, 2025, is being called a “big shock” and a “great comeback” for the People’s Democratic Party, or PDP. Their man, Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, beat the National Conference, or NC, candidate Aga Syed Mahmood Al-Mosavi by 4,478 votes. PDP boss Mehbooba Mufti lost no time in saying this proves her party is rising again in the tough politics of Jammu and Kashmir. But when you look at the real numbers, the turnout of voters, and what was going on behind the scenes, the picture is not so bright. This was not a strong win backed by the people. It was a broken, scattered result with low interest, family power, and a lot of disappointment. The truth is simple: the winner got support from only 17% of all voters, while more than half the people on the list did not even show up to vote.
Let us start with the basic numbers so anyone can understand. Budgam has 1,25,394 people who can vote. On election day, only 50.32% of them—around 63,114 persons—actually went to the polling booth. That low turnout speaks for itself. It is much less than what we saw in earlier elections in the area. It shows how tired and fed up voters have become in Jammu and Kashmir ever since Article 370 was removed in 2019. Out of the votes that were cast, Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi got 21,576. That is about 34% of the votes counted. But when you look at the full list of voters, it is only 17.2%. The NC man, Aga Syed Mahmood Al-Mosavi, got 17,098 votes—roughly 27% of the cast votes and just 13.6% of all possible voters.
The rest of the votes more than 24,425 went to 16 other candidates and the NOTA button, which means “none of the above.” This big scattered group made up almost 39% of the votes that were cast. It was bigger than what the winner got. It shows how split the election was. If anyone calls this a “revival” for PDP, they are missing the point. The win stands on borrowed family power, not on real party strength or fresh ideas.
The main reason for this result is the long control of the Aga family over Budgam politics. This respected Shia family has been the centre of power in the area for many years. Family members switch parties but keep a tight hold on local support. The PDP victory was not because of party plans or hard work on the ground. It happened because PDP put up a person carrying the Aga name. They used his religious respect and social standing to pull Shia voters in certain pockets. Mehbooba Mufti keeps talking about her party coming back to life, but she forgets one big fact: take away the Aga name, and the same candidate would have got hardly any votes in such a crowded race.
This habit of borrowing family names is common in Jammu and Kashmir politics. Family tags matter more than party promises. The Aga family’s hold goes back decades. They shape who wins through religious respect, community links, and old favours. In this by-election, the PDP man gained from the family’s skill to bring out votes in Shia-heavy areas where feelings and sect ties run strong. But this plan had clear limits. It did nothing to fire up the Sunni voters, who make up a big part—around 40 to 45% in many parts of Budgam. Sunni people face the same daily problems: no jobs, broken roads, power cuts, bad hospitals. Yet they stayed on the sidelines. Their own leaders did not build a story around these real issues. Instead, they kept attacking the Aga hold with negative talk. This narrow view failed to break Shia support and also failed to bring Sunni voters to the booths. In the end, it became a self-made failure.
What made the PDP win easier was the missing presence of another Aga family member: Aga Syed Ruhulla Mehdi. Ruhulla is a top NC leader and a Member of Parliament. He has huge respect among Shia people across Jammu and Kashmir. By November 2025, he is the strongest and most trusted Shia voice in the region. He has even pushed the once-powerful Ansari family into the background. Ruhulla chose to stay out of this by-election. He did not campaign for the NC candidate. He did not even say a word in support. His quiet stand was powerful. It sent a clear message of unhappiness with how NC handled the contest and maybe with the party’s larger role in the Union Territory.
The effect of Ruhulla staying away was huge. His loyal followers people who have backed him for years either did not vote or gave their vote to someone else as a protest. NC workers admit in private talks that their party went into the fight “half ready” without Ruhulla’s help in bringing people out. In earlier elections, his public meetings and house-to-house visits were key to high Shia turnout. When he stepped back, a big gap opened that the NC candidate could not fill. It led to a sharp fall in energy. Just look at the difference: in the 2024 Assembly polls, NC leader Omar Abdullah pulled more than 36,000 votes from Budgam areas. This time, the NC by-election candidate got only 17,098. That big drop was not mainly because people turned against NC. It was because people simply stopped caring.
On the other side, PDP gained from a different family link: the leftover influence of the Ansari family. The Ansaris are not at their peak anymore—Ruhulla has taken the lead—but they still have loyal pockets among Shia voters. They moved fast to back the PDP Aga candidate. This quick, organised support helped PDP gather votes that could have gone waste. Once again, you see how Budgam politics works more like a game between powerful families than a real fight between party ideas. Voters were not picking between PDP’s old “healing touch” slogan or NC’s talk of special status. They were picking between two Aghas, and the party names were just labels stuck on the outside.
This family grip killed any chance for real talk on ideas or local problems. Unemployment in Budgam is over 20%, worse than the rest of Jammu and Kashmir. Young people have suffered the most after the changes in 2019. Roads are full of potholes, electricity comes and goes, health centres lack staff and medicine. Yet none of these issues took centre stage in the campaign. Sunni leaders, above all, wasted a golden chance. They were so fixed on the “Aga problem” that they forgot to knock on doors in Sunni villages. In places where Sunnis are the majority, very few people voted. That low turnout let the family power stay in place without any fight.
Right in the middle of this family mess, one person shone like a ray of hope: Independent candidate; Jibran Dar. The field was full of big names, heavy money, and family networks. Dar had none of that. He ran a simple, people-first campaign. No party flag, no family history, no rich donors. Still, he won 7,152 votes—about 11.3% of all votes cast, or one out of every nine ballots. He beat every candidate outside the NC and PDP. That tells you how much he connected with angry youth and voters tired of name-based politics.
Dar’s style was down-to-earth. He held small meetings in towns, talked to people on social media, went house to house. He spoke clearly about jobs, better schools, and honest governance. His words reached voters who wanted something real in a world of empty slogans. Dar did not take the seat, but he took the story. He proved that Budgam people, especially the young, are ready for fresh leaders who look honest and easy to reach, without the weight of old family baggage. If Dar had the support of a strong family or a big name backing him, his votes could have jumped high enough to change the result. As things stand, his showing is the only bright spot—a clear sign that politics can grow from the ground up in a system ruled from the top.
When you step back and look at the whole picture, the real winner of this by-election was not PDP or NC. It was plain voter apathy. More than 62,000 registered voters 49.68% of the total stayed away. They closed their doors, skipped the booths, and in effect boycotted an event they saw as a joke run by families and empty of real answers. This silent group is the true power in Budgam: people fed up with never-ending family fights and broken promises. The two main candidates together got 38,674 votes. That is nothing next to the number who did not vote. In simple terms, the winner’s 17% cannot claim a big public backing, and the runner-up’s 13% cannot pretend to wide support.
The anti-establishment feeling makes the disappointment even clearer. The 24,425 votes spread among independents, small groups, and NOTA made up 39% of the cast ballots. It was a direct “no” to the PDP-NC control and the Aga-centred setup. The votes did not gather behind one protest name, but the anger is easy to feel. People hit back at the old guard not by picking one rebel, but by splitting the field and staying home.
The Budgam by-election was not a happy day for democracy. It was a mirror showing the cracks. Political tiredness has settled deep, made worse by years of central control, security curbs, and a slow economy. Until parties or new leaders talk straight to the half who stayed home, and give real plans beyond catchy lines and family names, we will keep seeing the same thing: wins that mean little and losses that teach nothing.
In this dark picture, Jibran Dar’s rise brings real hope. He earned every single vote by his own effort, not by birth. He showed that Budgam’s young people want change. His 7,152 votes are money in the bank for the future, a message that family rule can be questioned. PDP may cheer their “upset,” but the true story lies with the 83% of voters who either said no to the winner or turned their backs on the whole process. Until that big group is won over with solid ideas, Budgam will go on delivering empty wins and silent mandates.
