Coalition Crumbles

Iqbal Ahmad

Cross-Voting and Spoiled Ballots Hand BJP an Easy Win

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I. Ahmed Wani

Politics is like a house of cards built on fragile trust and prone to collapse at the slightest misstep. The Rajya Sabha elections on October 24, 2025, in Srinagar laid bare this truth once again. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) walked away with the fourth seat, not through a grand campaign, but because the ruling coalition handed it to them on a platter. Seven MLAs, meant to stand with the alliance, wandered off: four slipped their votes to BJP’s candidate, while three others “accidentally” spoiled their ballots, just enough to tip the scales. This wasn’t a battle lost; it was a gift given—a story of carelessness, ego, and a political system that rewards those who wait for others to falter.

The numbers don’t lie. BJP’s Sat Sharma secured 32 votes, four more than his party’s official tally of 28. Those extra votes came from the coalition’s own ranks. Shammi Oberoi, another winner, took 31 votes. Meanwhile, National Conference (NC) candidate Imran Nabi Dar, who should have had 28 or 29 votes, ended with just 21—a shortfall of seven or eight that sank his chances. The NC-led coalition seemed unstoppable on paper: 41 NC MLAs, six from Congress, seven independents, three from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and one from CPI(M)—58 votes, enough for both the third and fourth seats. But when the ballots were counted, that strength vanished like smoke.

What went wrong? The system, for one, but more so the leaders who treat it like a game they’re too proud to play properly. In these polls, MLAs from political parties must show their marked ballots to their party’s polling agent before voting. It’s a simple rule to keep loyalty in check. Yet, the PDP didn’t bother appointing agents for its MLAs, leaving their votes wide open. Congress’s Nizamuddin Bhat, serving as his own party’s agent, voted without a substitute to verify his ballot. He laughed it off, saying, “I showed my vote to myself.” It’s a cute quip, but it masks a deeper failure. Sources say PDP MLAs were told to back Dar over Oberoi and agreed to do so. But without agents, those promises were as good as whispers in the wind.

It’s easy to point fingers at PDP’s lapse or Congress’s casual approach, but the real question is for the NC. Why didn’t they ensure their allies had agents in place? Why didn’t they double-check commitments from partners whose votes they needed? This wasn’t a coalition; it was a house built on ego, where leaders assumed loyalty without lifting a finger to secure it. The NC announced Imran Nabi Dar as their candidate without fully consulting their allies, treating the seat like a formality. Worse, they initially offered it to Congress, who refused, calling it “too risky.” That hesitation was the first crack—BJP saw it and pounced. By the time NC named Dar, it felt like an afterthought, a halfhearted move that screamed, “This seat’s not worth fighting for.” And so, it became a walkover for BJP.

This isn’t new in J&K. I saw it myself in the Block Development Council (BDC) elections of October-November 2019, the first polls after Article 370’s abrogation turned our world upside down for many poltical parties. Those elections were raw, uncertain, with elected panchs and sarpanchs voting for the Block Development Chairman. I wanted to contest in my home block, Achabal in Anantnag, but the seat was reserved for women, so I was out. Still, I couldn’t sit still—the political itch was too strong. I searched for a woman candidate who could serve the people, someone with at least a 12th-grade education. After looking, I found my friend’s wife, a graduate sarpanch from one of Achabal’s 28 villages. She was the most qualified woman we could find in a field narrowed by new reservation rules.

With 67 voters—panchs and sarpanchs—we needed just 20 votes to win. We campaigned tirelessly, knocking on doors, sharing tea and plans, building what we thought was a solid base. But elections aren’t won on effort alone; they hinge on trust. We were betrayed by two of our candidate’s relatives, whose votes we counted as certain but went elsewhere. Then, two more ballots from our side were rejected silly mistakes by supporters we hadn’t trained well enough. We ended with 15 votes, two short of the winner’s 17. Congress got 12, an independent 8, and some, like Sajad Lone in yesterday’s polls, just sat it out. BJP took Achabal, perhaps the only block they won, not because they outworked us, but because we tripped over our own feet.

BJP’s edge came from perception. They spread a quiet narrative: “The administration’s with us, no matter what.” It was a mind game that shook our voters’ confidence. Add their sharp focus on blocks like Achabal, and they didn’t need to win hearts—just votes. We had the better candidate, the better plan, but we lost to ego and error. I didn’t manage the campaign tightly enough, assuming loyalty where I should’ve ensured it. Sound familiar? The NC made the same mistake yesterday, treating allies like automatic votes and the seat like a done deal. They didn’t just lose; they handed BJP the win.

This halfheartedness stings because it’s so avoidable. J&K’s coalitions are often fragile, patched together by convenience, not conviction. The NC assumes partners like PDP and Congress will fall in line, but old wounds PDP’s 2018 split with BJP, Congress’s national pressures keep trust thin. Independents are wild cards, swayed by promises or fear. Without agents to watch the votes, the system was begging to be gamed. BJP didn’t need to campaign harder; they just waited for the coalition to implode. Four MLAs crossing over was a quiet betrayal; three spoiled ballots were a coward’s way out, dodging responsibility while sinking Dar.

The system deserves criticism not BJP, who simply played the hand they were dealt. The fault lies with leaders whose egos blind them to basic duties. NC didn’t call PDP to confirm agents. They didn’t ensure Congress had a substitute for Bhat. They didn’t rally their allies to treat this seat as a must-win. Instead, they floated Dar’s name halfheartedly, signaling it was a throwaway. In Achabal, I failed to double-check my voters; NC failed to lock in their coalition. Both times, BJP didn’t win—they were handed victory by our own carelessness.

What’s next? A “war of words,” as reports suggest, with NC blaming PDP, Congress shrugging, and independents slipping away. But talk is cheap. The coalition needs to soul-search. Why assume loyalty without verifying it? Why announce a candidate without rallying allies first? PDP’s silence and Congress’s nonchalance are bad enough, but NC’s leadership set the tone. Six years after Article 370’s end, J&K’s elections feel like theater big on drama, short on substance. In Achabal, BJP’s win fueled distrust; yesterday’s loss risks the same, pushing people further from believing in fair politics.

My 2019 defeat hurt not because we missed two votes, but because I thought I had it under control. NC thought the same yesterday, and now they’re licking their wounds. If J&K’s leaders want to win—not just seats, but trust they need to shed the ego. Call allies. Appoint agents. Train voters. Treat every ballot like it matters. Otherwise, every election will be another walkover, gifted to BJP while the coalition points fingers. Achabal 2019 and Srinagar 2025 teach the same lesson: halfhearted efforts leave empty hands. J&K deserves leaders who fight as hard as its people dream.