The Ukraine War, Western Sanctions, and a New Test of Indian Strategic Autonomy
Dr. Priyanka Saurabh
India’s relations with Russia have been built on a strong foundation of strategic partnership, defence cooperation, and political trust for decades. From the Cold War era to the present, Russia has been one of the few countries that consistently supported India’s interests even in difficult times. However, the Russia–Ukraine war that began in 2022 has transformed global politics, energy markets, financial structures, and strategic alliances, bringing India–Russia relations to a new turning point.
Strict Western sanctions have not only impacted Russia’s economy and defence production capabilities but have also created unprecedented diplomatic challenges for partners like India. While the United States, Europe, and Indo-Pacific partners expect India to adhere to Western norms, India cannot ignore Russia’s importance in energy security, defence cooperation, and global strategic balance. At this crossroads, India faces a crucial test: how to maintain relations with Russia while firmly upholding its strategic autonomy.
The biggest complication today is Russia’s gradual tilt towards China—an equation that is not entirely favourable from the perspective of India’s interests. Russia’s growing economic, technological, and military cooperation with China is altering the regional balance within which India formulates its security strategy. India understands that China’s ambitions are not limited to regional dominance in Asia but extend to reshaping the global balance of power. Consequently, the increasing Russia–China proximity complicates India’s strategic calculations.
Western sanctions pose equally serious challenges. Defence imports from Russia and the supply of critical spare parts have slowed due to sanctions. Many of the key systems on which India’s Air Force and Army rely are either Russian-made or co-produced with Russia. Pressure on the Russian defence industry caused by the Ukraine war has raised concerns in India regarding project timelines. Delays in the delivery of certain weapon systems and missiles reflect this strain. This situation is pushing India to diversify its defence sources over the long term and intensify its focus on domestic production.
Trade imbalances have also emerged as a serious concern in India–Russia relations. A sharp rise in crude oil imports has made bilateral trade highly lopsided. India’s exports to Russia remain extremely low, and the payment mechanisms have not stabilised. The rupee–ruble trading system has failed to achieve the desired efficiency due to Western sanctions and international banking regulations, increasing uncertainty and risk in bilateral trade structures.
Meanwhile, Western countries expect India to reduce its engagement with Russia and adopt what they describe as a “moral” stance on the Ukraine issue. However, India’s foreign policy has always been guided more by national interest than by moral posturing. India has repeatedly abstained from voting at the United Nations, making it clear that it will not directly support either side. This balanced position symbolises India’s strategic autonomy, though it has drawn mixed reactions in the West. While some label it “pragmatic diplomacy,” others interpret it as “excessive sympathy” for Russia. Navigating these perceptions requires careful and skilled diplomacy.
India also faces the complex challenge of maintaining strong partnerships with both Russia and the United States. The United States is currently India’s largest technological and economic partner and a key pillar of the Indo-Pacific security architecture through the Quad. Russia, on the other hand, remains a traditional ally and a cornerstone of India’s defence framework for decades. Balancing these two relationships is difficult but essential. India must demonstrate that these partnerships are complementary rather than contradictory.
To manage this delicate balance, India can adopt several strategic measures. First, it must accelerate “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiatives to reduce dependence on defence imports. Expanding joint production and technical cooperation with Russia on Indian soil can reduce reliance on direct imports and minimise the impact of sanctions. At the same time, India should strengthen defence partnerships with the United States, European countries, France, and Israel.
Second, India must diversify its trade with Russia beyond energy, expanding into agriculture, pharmaceuticals, information technology, and other non-defence sectors. This diversification would help reduce trade imbalances and provide greater economic stability for both countries. Third, India needs to develop a reliable, sanctions-resistant payment mechanism. Platforms under BRICS, the SCO, and alternative financial arrangements could play a significant role in this effort.
At the diplomatic level, India must sustain credible and transparent dialogue with Russia while clearly communicating to Western nations that its neutrality stems from responsible strategic thinking. India has consistently shown that it can safeguard its interests without aligning with any military or political bloc. The current global environment demands a mature, nuanced, and multi-dimensional diplomatic approach.
Amid these shifts, it is crucial for India to protect its national interests without following any superpower’s agenda. India has always supported a multipolar world order where no single power dominates. While maintaining relations with Russia, India must uphold an independent foreign policy—one that neither succumbs to pressure nor takes unnecessary sides in global conflicts.
Ultimately, India–Russia relations stand at a historic juncture. The Ukraine conflict, sanctions politics, and shifting alliance structures have made this relationship more complex, yet they also present new opportunities. India must recognise that Russia is not merely a defence partner but a stakeholder in energy security, regional stability, and broader Asian geopolitics. At the same time, the West remains essential to India’s economic growth and global ascent.
India’s objective, therefore, should not be alignment with any single power bloc but the pursuit of balance—one that strengthens strategic autonomy, economic resilience, and India’s evolving global role.
This is the moment for India to employ diplomatic finesse, clear reasoning, and firm resolve to demonstrate to the world that strategic autonomy is not merely a policy choice, but a defining feature of India’s global identity.
(Note: Priyanka Saurabh is
Research Scholar in Political Science
Poet, Freelance Journalist & Columnist
Ubba Bhawan, Aryanagar, Hisar (Haryana) – 127045)
