Colonel Dev Anand Lohamrod
Two developments have complicated South Asia and Middle East geopolitics. On 29 September 2025, the U.S. ended the sanctions waiver granted to India in 2018 for developing Iran’s Chabahar Port. Days earlier, on 17 September, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.” Both moves are part of a broader U.S. design: tighten pressure on Iran while curbing India’s regional influence.
Chabahar Port is India’s strategic gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. In May 2024, India signed a 10-year deal with Iran to operate the port. Washington has now withdrawn the waiver under its “maximum pressure” policy, calling Chabahar part of Iran’s illicit networks. The real casualty is India. From 29 September, Indian companies linked to Chabahar face U.S. penalties, jeopardizing the project and India’s regional connectivity plans.
The timing is significant. India had just sent a 64-member contingent to Russia and Belarus for the multinational Zapad-2025 exercise from 10–16 September. Participation was more than symbolic. It underlined India’s defense ties with Moscow and its support for a multipolar order. Washington, wary of the Russia-Iran-India axis, is signaling that deeper ties with Moscow and Tehran will invite counter-pressure. Sanctions on Chabahar are less about Iran alone and more about squeezing India’s “strategic autonomy.”
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has locked itself into a NATO-style pact with Pakistan, declaring that “an attack on one will be an attack on both.” For Riyadh, the deal offers nuclear-backed deterrence against Iran. For Islamabad, it brings Saudi money and military cover despite economic weakness. Many analysts see tacit U.S. approval, as the pact fits America’s long-term aim of isolating Tehran.
Together, these moves squeeze India from two directions. Chabahar sanctions undercut India’s most important regional project and the International North-South Transport Corridor, reducing access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The Saudi-Pakistan pact boosts Islamabad’s confidence, raising the stakes in any future confrontation with India. If Pakistan launches or supports terror strikes, Saudi backing could embolden its response.
Policy Options for India
Chabahar and Connectivity: India must work with the EU, Russia, and Central Asia to press for a humanitarian waiver that exempts Chabahar. Failing that, it should accelerate alternative INSTC routes through Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Balancing the Gulf: India should deepen economic and defense ties with the UAE, Qatar, and Oman to offset the Riyadh-Islamabad axis.
Military Preparedness: With Pakistan now shielded by Saudi support, India must reinforce deterrence by strengthening defense partnerships with Russia, France, and the U.S.
The message is clear. India must protect its strategic autonomy, resist external pressure, and expand its role in a multipolar order. Only then can it manage the dual challenge of U.S. sanctions and shifting Gulf alliances while safeguarding long-term national interests.
