Shahzad Ahmad
In the verdant valleys shadowed by the Himalayas, Jammu and Kashmir has long embodied both breathtaking beauty and bitter conflict. Five years ago, on August 5, 2019, the Indian government abrogated Article 370, stripping the region of its special constitutional status and integrating it more fully into the Union. Proponents hailed this as a bold step toward empowerment, ending decades of isolation and unlocking development. Critics viewed it as a unilateral assault on autonomy, deepening human rights concerns and alienation. As we mark this milestone, a balanced examination reveals a complex reality: measurable gains in security and economic indicators, yet persistent violence, demographic anxieties, and accusations of repression. This is neither a story of unmitigated triumph nor complete tragedy, but one that demands nuance amid deeply polarized narratives.
A Safer Haven? Security Gains Tempered by Lingering Threats
For generations, Kashmir’s landscape echoed with unrest—stone-pelting clashes, hartals, and militant violence that claimed lives and paralyzed normal life. Since the abrogation, official figures show a marked decline in violence. Terrorist incidents have dropped significantly, overall fatalities have fallen from 283 in 2019 to 92 in 2025, civilian deaths have decreased sharply, and security personnel fatalities have reduced substantially. Local recruitment into militant groups has plummeted from 143 in 2019 to just seven in 2024. Stone-pelting incidents, once numbering in the thousands annually, have virtually disappeared.
This shift is attributed to sustained counter-insurgency operations that have neutralized dozens of militants annually, many of them foreign nationals. Foreign fighters now constitute the majority of those killed, highlighting a sharp decline in local support for outfits like Hizbul Mujahideen, widely regarded as backed by Pakistan’s ISI. Daily life bears witness to this change: schools have functioned without major disruption for five consecutive years, Muharram processions—banned for over three decades—now take place peacefully, cinemas long shuttered have reopened, and Navreh celebrations by Kashmiri Pandits have returned after more than thirty years, symbolizing tentative communal healing.
Yet the calm remains fragile. Targeted attacks continue, most notably the 2025 Pahalgam incident that claimed 28 civilian lives, mostly Hindu tourists. Civilian deaths rose in some recent years compared to earlier post-abrogation lows. Human rights organizations document persistent use of laws such as the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act for arrests, allegations of torture, extrajudicial killings, and arbitrary detentions. Critics argue that what appears as “peace” is enforced through heavy militarization, creating a controlled rather than consensual calm. The reduction in casualties, they contend, masks underlying grievances rather than resolving them.
Economic Momentum: Investments Surge, But Realization Lags
The post-2019 economic narrative is one of promise. Jammu and Kashmir’s Gross State Domestic Product continues to grow, with per capita income rising steadily. Thousands of investment proposals worth hundreds of thousands of crores have been received, promising lakhs of jobs. Actual investment inflows since 2019 have reached several thousand crores, with notable increases in recent years leading to the creation of tens of thousands of jobs. Industrial estates in districts like Budgam, Samba, and Kathua have seen hundreds of new units registered. Unemployment rates have edged downward, supported by central employment-generation schemes that have funded thousands of micro-enterprises and self-employment ventures. Tax collections across categories have shown healthy growth.
Integration into the national economy has opened new doors, with hundreds of industrial units becoming operational and drawing significant capital. However, actual investment realization remains far below the headline figures of proposed projects. Many new jobs are in low-value micro-enterprises dependent on government incentives, offering limited long-term security. Infrastructure spending has been substantial, yet employment generation has not kept pace proportionally. Services dominate the economy but employ only a fraction of the workforce. While per capita income has grown faster than in several other northern states, inflation continues to erode real gains for many households. Changes to domicile laws allowing non-locals to acquire property have fueled fears of demographic alteration and economic marginalization.
Tourism’s Boom and Bust: Paradise Reclaimed, Then Rattled
Kashmir’s reputation as “Paradise on Earth” was once overshadowed by insecurity. After 2019, tourist arrivals soared to record levels, contributing meaningfully to the state economy. Millions of domestic visitors and a growing number of foreign tourists arrived in peak years, fueling employment in homestays, guiding services, handicrafts, and hospitality. Women, in particular, found new avenues for financial independence through tourism-related ventures. International arrivals increased several-fold, reflecting growing global confidence in the region’s stability.
But 2025 marked a reversal. Visitor numbers declined sharply compared to previous years, triggered by high-profile security incidents and seasonal disruptions. Domestic tourism fell dramatically in the first half of the year, and foreign arrivals dropped significantly. While popular destinations like Gulmarg still recorded strong occupancy in recovery periods, the sector remains acutely vulnerable to even isolated acts of violence. The tourism rebound demonstrates resilience, yet also underscores how fragile the gains remain.
Social Welfare: Central Schemes Extend Reach, Rights Concerns Persist
Before 2019, many central government welfare programs had limited penetration in Jammu and Kashmir. Today, flagship schemes deliver housing sanctions to lakhs of families, health coverage to millions, direct income support to farmers, and targeted benefits for women, children, and marginalized communities. Reserved categories—including West Pakistan refugees, Dalits, tribals, and OBCs—have gained access to educational and employment quotas. Major infrastructure projects, including new AIIMS campuses, high-speed rail connectivity, and hydropower developments, are transforming access to services.
At the same time, human rights groups continue to highlight patterns of arbitrary detention, passport restrictions, media censorship, and the use of stringent laws to silence dissent. Journalists, activists, and ordinary citizens have faced prolonged legal battles or restrictions. The Supreme Court upheld the abrogation in 2023 but called for the restoration of statehood—a commitment that remains unfulfilled.
Democracy’s Flicker: High Turnouts Signal Engagement
Assembly elections in 2024 recorded historically high voter participation—the highest in decades. Over thirty-five thousand elected representatives now participate in local governance. Central transparency laws apply, and political competition has returned to the mainstream. The formation of a new government under the National Conference–Congress alliance, with promises to pursue statehood restoration, reflects a shift toward democratic contestation.
Yet the lieutenant governor retains significant executive authority, limiting the assembly’s effective power. High turnout is interpreted by some as trust in the new order and rejection of militancy, and by others as an expression of protest against the 2019 changes. The participation of former separatist figures in the electoral process hints at possible democratic deepening, though many see it as coerced normalcy under pressure.
Beyond Polarized Narratives
Militant groups, long accused of serving external agendas and exploiting local youth, have seen their influence wane dramatically as local recruitment collapses. Yet critics of the post-2019 order argue that heavy-handed measures and unaddressed grievances risk reviving alienation. Young Kashmiris deserve more than cycles of violence or suppression. Skill development, entrepreneurship, and tourism offer real pathways forward—but sustainable peace requires genuine dialogue, accountability for past violations, and inclusive governance that honors the region’s plural heritage.
Five years after Article 370’s abrogation, progress in security, economy, and welfare is tangible. But it remains incomplete without justice, trust, and the full restoration of democratic agency.
Jai Kashmir, Jai Hind.
