Pakistan-based terrorist organisations and the ISI have made numerous attempts to spread terrorism south of the Pir Panjal since late 1990s.
As part of its larger design during the mid-1990s and early 2000s, foreign terrorists were infiltrated in large numbers in Poonch and Rajouri to undertake acts of terrorism and coerce the civil population.
The suicide attack is a popular coercion strategy of terrorists, to threaten further violence in the future.
Thus, security forces must prepare itself for such attacks periodically.
The ISI’s attempts to give impetus to terrorism south of the Pir Panjal failed in the past primarily due to diverse demography, effective counter infiltration and counter-terrorism grids.
The demography of the region has a mix of Pahari, Gujjar, Bakarwal, Poonchi, Mugal Rajputs, Kashmiri Muslims and Dogras.
Most of these tribes have not found traction for Pakistan-backed terrorism initiatives.
The separatists have no real mass support in the region and the Jamait-e-Islami’s influence is also negligible.
But the administration’s inaction to redress public grievances could prove fatal.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, some local youth were lured into terrorism, but Pakistan-based terrorist organisations could not establish mass support among the civil population for a sustained period.
The euphoria for terror organisations evaporated around 2006-2007, as a result, terrorism was almost rolled up from south of the Pir Panjal by 2008 when normalcy returned to the region.
Terrorism in the past has caused innumerable hardship to the people of this hilly region in the past.
Consequently, repeated attempts of ISI-backed terrorist organisations to renew terrorism in this region failed and except for few sporadic incidents terrorists have not found traction among the locals, because it seriously impacted daily life, education and development work in the region.
Prior to the August 11, 2022 suicide terror attack on the Indian Army camp in Rajouri where four soldiers lost their lives while neutralising the attackers, there was another major incident in October 2021 in Rajouri in which the army lost nine soldiers.
There are some plausible reasons why periodic terror attacks take place south of the Pir Panjal.
First, such acts of terror are a calculated move by terror organisations with an aim to make their presence felt in the otherwise peaceful areas of Poonch and Rajouri.
Second, whenever security forces are in complete control of the situation in the Kashmir Valley and attrition on terrorists is heavy, terror organisations attempt to carry out sensational attacks to divert attention to try and boost the sagging morale of terrorists in other parts of Jammu and Kashmir.
Third, during the rainy season thick foliage and the maize crop facilitates infiltration and movement of terrorists in the hinterland.
With the onset of winter, infiltration and cross country movement of terrorists becomes even harder, thus this is the only window terror organisations have to carry out such attacks in the hilly and tough region of Poonch-Rajouri.
Fourth, periodic attacks in this region can also be attributed to thinning out of the counter-terrorism grid in areas south of the Pir Panjal.
In the last three to four years due to low numbers of terrorist-related acts, troops have been pulled out from this region and deployed elsewhere.
Whereas, terrorism is dynamic in nature and whenever the pressure is lifted, terrorists will make their presence felt.
Fifth, terrorist organisations have been attempting to cause sensational attacks around Independence day and Republic Day.
