The rain has stopped. The Jhelum is falling. The flood scare is over, for now. People along the riverbanks can breathe again.

But are we safe? No. Not at all.

This week was a warning. Five days of rain pushed the Jhelum past the flood mark in Srinagar. Streams in south Kashmir rose fast. Families in low-lying areas were moved out. A few more hours of heavy rain, and we could have seen 2014 again. We escaped because the rain stopped. Not because we were ready.

And the rain will come back. The weather office already expects a fresh wet spell from July 28. Luck is not a flood policy. We need a real one.

Dredging the Jhelum is the first step. The river cannot carry the water it once did. Its bed has risen. The flood channel is choked. Dredging projects start, stop, and stall. This must change. Dredging should go on all year, every year. It should be checked and audited. It is not a one-time project. It is basic maintenance of our lifeline.

But dredging alone will not save us. The bigger problem is encroachment.

Look at any river in the Valley. The Jhelum. The Lidder. The Vishow. The Doodhganga. Houses and shops now sit on their banks. Wetlands have been filled and sold. Flood channels are blocked by concrete. Every inch taken from the river is a loan. The river always collects it back. With interest.

The government’s response has been weak. Drives against encroachment come after every scare. Then they fade. This will not work.

We need a clear state policy. Mark the floodplains of every river and stream. Ban all new construction there. Remove illegal structures within a fixed time. And treat poor families fairly. Many settled there because they had no choice. Give them a proper place to go. And do not spare the rich and powerful. A law that only touches the weak is no law at all.

Our wetlands must be saved too. Hokersar. Wular. Narkara. They are the Valley’s sponges. They soak up floods. They must not become real estate.

The water has gone down. The danger has not. The next rain is days away. Will we act now? Or will we just wait for the next scare?

The choice is ours. The time is short.