NC Dominates, BJP Strong in Jammu, Congress Struggles for Relevance
The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections marked a significant moment in the region’s political landscape. With the results declared on October 8, the National Conference (NC) emerged as the largest political force, securing 42 seats out of 90, reaffirming its dominance, particularly in the Kashmir Valley. On the other hand, the Indian National Congress (INC) found itself overshadowed by its pre-poll alliance with NC, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed exceptionally well in its traditional bastion of Jammu, winning 29 out of 43 seats in the region. This electoral outcome wasn’t simply the result of voting patterns but reflected deeper strategic planning, organizational capabilities, and political narratives crafted by each party.
National Conference’s Strategic Victory
The National Conference’s landslide victory in the Kashmir Valley was the culmination of a well-orchestrated campaign. Under the leadership of Omar Abdullah and veteran leader Farooq Abdullah, NC managed to capture the public’s imagination by presenting itself as the only formidable force capable of countering the BJP. This was achieved through a strategic narrative that resonated deeply with the people of Kashmir—particularly regarding the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A.
NC’s campaign tactics included a relentless attack on the BJP and its regional allies, such as the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Omar Abdullah and other NC leaders branded these parties as “BJP proxies,” painting them as complicit in the dilution of Kashmir’s special status. This relentless messaging framed NC as the defender of Kashmiri identity and rights, which struck a chord with voters who still harbor strong sentiments against the 2019 constitutional changes that stripped J&K of its statehood.
NC’s decision to keep PDP out of its alliance with Congress also proved to be a strategic masterstroke. PDP’s baggage from its prior alliance with the BJP, which many in the Valley believe led to the abrogation of Article 370, was an albatross that Mehbooba Mufti could not shake off. By distancing itself from PDP, NC reinforced its position as the primary anti-BJP force in the region, thereby monopolizing the anti-BJP vote.
Congress: A Case of Missed Opportunities
For the Congress, the 2024 J&K Assembly elections were a bittersweet experience. The party entered the fray in alliance with the NC, but its role in the alliance was limited, both in terms of political influence and electoral success. Out of the 90 constituencies, Congress managed to win only six seats, a far cry from its past glory as one of India’s leading political parties. Prominent Congress leaders, including two of its working presidents, lost their seats, further underscoring the party’s weak electoral position in the region.
Omar Abdullah’s statement following the election results encapsulated the Congress’s reduced role: “We would have won seats without the Congress, except probably one of them.” This blunt admission highlights the minimal contribution Congress made to the alliance’s overall victory. The party, once a formidable player in Jammu and Kashmir’s politics, now finds itself reduced to a supporting role in the NC-led government.
Critics, including J&K People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone, argued that Congress should have contested the election solo to revive its political fortunes in the region. Lone suggested that Rahul Gandhi could have capitalized on the strong public sentiment for the restoration of statehood. Instead, by aligning with NC, Congress squandered the opportunity to present itself as a strong, independent force capable of addressing the aspirations of the people. The decision to ally with a regional party, instead of riding the wave of national discontent against the BJP’s central policies, left Congress with little to show in terms of electoral success or political influence.
Moreover, the Congress’s inability to organize an effective campaign further hampered its prospects. Infighting, poor candidate selection, and last-minute logistical decisions, such as the late filing of nominations by prominent leaders, left the party in a disorganized state. This chaos allowed the BJP and NC to dominate the political landscape, leaving Congress on the sidelines, with limited influence in the post-election government.
BJP’s Strategy in Jammu: A Blueprint for Success
While NC emerged victorious in Kashmir, the BJP’s performance in the Jammu region was nothing short of remarkable. The party won 29 out of 43 seats in the Jammu division, reaffirming its stronghold in the region. This victory was not a stroke of luck but the result of a meticulously crafted strategy that focused on grassroots mobilization, cultural outreach, and invoking local pride.
The BJP’s campaign in Jammu was a well-coordinated effort, blending traditional campaign tactics with innovative approaches. From the outset, the party focused on reaching out to rural areas through bhajan-kirtans, small group meetings, and cultural events that resonated with the local population. The BJP’s decision to send spiritual speakers and bhajan mandlis to engage communities was not merely ceremonial; it was a calculated move to forge a cultural and emotional connection with the voters.
In addition to cultural outreach, the BJP also targeted women voters through street plays and nukkad nataks. These performances highlighted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies and presented Congress and other opposition parties as “pro-Pakistan” forces. By invoking the Dogra community’s “heroic past,” the BJP was able to unite voters under a shared sense of regional pride and identity.
Behind the scenes, the BJP’s campaign machinery was a well-oiled machine. Over two dozen committees were established to ensure seamless coordination between the party’s central leadership and local grassroots workers. The BJP’s extensive ground support ensured that it remained in constant contact with voters, earning their trust long before the election season began.
The presence of senior BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Modi, in the region further bolstered the party’s image. Multiple visits from top leaders helped galvanize support, while the Congress struggled to maintain a coherent presence. The BJP’s success in Jammu is a testament to the party’s ability to combine grassroots outreach, cultural engagement, and effective leadership to achieve electoral success.
A Shifting Political Landscape
The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections have reshaped the political dynamics of the region. The National Conference’s overwhelming victory in the Kashmir Valley and the BJP’s stronghold in Jammu have left Congress in a precarious position, with limited influence and few options for regaining its past stature. The BJP’s meticulous strategy in Jammu, marked by grassroots mobilization and cultural outreach, serves as a blueprint for future electoral success, while the Congress’s failure to capitalize on public sentiment and internal disarray has left it marginalized.
As J&K moves forward, the political landscape remains fragmented, with NC firmly in control of the government, the BJP maintaining a strong presence in Jammu, and Congress left to ponder its future role in the region. The elections of 2024 have shown that effective strategy, cultural resonance, and grassroots engagement are key to political success in this complex and diverse region.
