Budgam’s By-Election Exposes Kashmir’s Dynastic Drama
Peerzada Masarat Shah
If Shakespeare scripted Kashmir’s politics, *Hamlet* would unfold in Budgam—not with ghosts and daggers, but with cousins clashing over Assembly seats. On November 11, 2025, this central Kashmir district isn’t electing a leader; it’s staging a blockbuster family reunion where democracy plays second fiddle. Four heavyweight Shia clerics from the mighty Agha dynasty are battling for one seat: Agha Syed Mehmood (National Conference), Agha Syed Muntazir Mehdi (PDP), Agha Syed Mohsin (BJP), and independent Agha Syed Mohsin Mustafa. It’s power, piety, and pedigree in a high-stakes showdown—real choice? Nowhere in sight.
## Dynasty’s Iron Grip: A Recipe for Monarchy
The vacancy stems from Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s 2024 triumph. After clinching Ganderbal with 36,010 votes, he vacated Budgam, where he’d crushed PDP’s Agha Muntazir Mehdi (17,445 votes). What followed wasn’t a grassroots scramble but an Agha family free-for-all. Descendants of revered cleric Agha Syed Yusuf al-Mosavi, they’ve dominated Budgam for decades via mosques, madrasas, and the influential Anjuman-e-Sharie Shiayan.
Budgam’s 1,25,266 voters include 25,000–31,000 Shias—prime Agha territory. Their religious clout turns elections into loyalty tests, not policy debates. Campaigns buzz with sermons on lineage, not blueprints for jobs or roads. It’s a monopoly masquerading as multiplicity: four Aghas, one surname, zero outsiders.
Parties as Family Puppets: Ideology Optional
In healthy democracies, parties embody rival visions. Here? NC, PDP, and BJP—bitter foes on national stages—field Agha branches like obedient uncles. This isn’t coincidence; it’s calculation. The family’s sway guarantees bloc votes, sidelining merit-worthy workers who’ve toiled for years.
**Kashmir’s Dynasty Hall of Fame:**
| Family | Key Figures | Seats Controlled |
|—————–|——————————|—————————|
| Abdullahs | Omar, Farooq | 2–3 Assembly + Lok Sabha |
| Muftis | Mehbooba, Mufti Mohammed | 1–2 Assembly |
| Aghas (Budgam) | 4 cousins | Rotating monopoly |
| Lone-Caravans | Altaf, Mohammad Yusuf | Handwara pocket |
Nationally, it echoes India’s elite clubs: Gandhis (Congress), Badals (Punjab), Yadavs (UP). A 2023 Lokniti-CSDS study found 30% of MPs from dynasties—double global averages. In J&K, it’s worse: 70% of 2024 Assembly winners hailed from political pedigrees.
## Faith as Political Fuel: Sermons Trump Solutions
The Aghas’ clerical robes amplify their edge. Friday prayers double as rallies; fatwas subtly steer flocks. Voters aren’t citizens weighing manifestos—they’re devotees picking the “blessed” cousin. Development? Budgam lags: 18% unemployment (2024 NSSO), patchy roads, stalled irrigation despite Rs 1,200 crore post-370 funds.
This fusion erodes accountability. Winners inherit fiefdoms, not mandates. Remember 2014? Mufti Mehbooba’s PDP swept south Kashmir on “healing touch”—yet delivered floods and unrest.
## Post-370 Mirage: Same Old Script
Article 370’s 2019 axing promised meritocracy: direct elections, new faces, performance politics. Instead, dynasties doubled down. 2024 J&K polls saw 90% re-elected incumbents or kin. Budgam exemplifies the relapse—BJP’s Agha bet signals even the “outsider” party bends to local sultans.
Parallel scandals sting: Sonam Wangchuk’s Ladakh fasts against broken promises; Shopian’s 2025 panchayat “elections” where one family won 80% wards. Across India, Bihar’s 2024 bypolls mirrored this—Nitish Kumar’s son anointed heir apparent.
## Voters: Extras in a Cousin Crescendo?
As Aghas crisscross orchards with megaphones, Budgam’s seven lakh residents watch a scripted saga. Choice boils down to: pious Mehmood or fiery Muntazir? It’s coronation couture—which crown fits the family best? Turnout may hit 60% (like 2024’s 63.9%), but it’s fealty, not freedom.
**Voter Verdict Simulator (2024 Data Projection):**
“`
{“type”: “doughnut”, “data”: {“labels”: [“NC Agha”, “PDP Agha”, “BJP Agha”, “Ind Agha”, “Others”], “datasets”: [{“data”: [38000, 18000, 12000, 8000, 10000], “backgroundColor”: [“#FF6B6B”, “#4ECDC4”, “#45B7D1”, “#96CEB4”, “#FFEAA7”]}]}, “options”: {“plugins”: {“title”: {“display”: true, “text”: “Budgam By-Election Vote Share Estimate”}}}}
“`
## Breaking the Bloodline: A Call to Chaos
True democracy demands disruption. Parties must scout beyond salons—reward rally organizers, not relatives. Voters: reject the family playlist; demand CVs over chromosomes.
Budgam isn’t anomaly; it’s alarm. November 11 tests if Kashmir chooses genetics or governance. Win or lose, Aghas endure—unless the people script a sequel sans surnames. Until then, elections remain elite picnics: caviar for cousins, crumbs for the crowd.
