Budgam’s By-Election Exposes Kashmir’s Dynastic Drama
Peerzada Masarat Shah
Imagine Shakespeare scripting Kashmir’s politics—*Hamlet* recast in Budgam, not with ghosts and daggers, but cousins clashing over an Assembly seat. On November 11, 2025, this central Kashmir district isn’t holding an election; it’s staging a blockbuster family reunion where democracy plays a reluctant understudy. Four heavyweight Shia clerics from the formidable Agha dynasty are vying for one seat: Agha Syed Mehmood (National Conference), Agha Syed Muntazir Mehdi (PDP), Agha Syed Mohsin (BJP), and independent Agha Syed Mohsin Mustafa. It’s a saga of power, piety, and pedigree—real choice is the missing act.
The vacancy traces back to Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s 2024 triumph. After securing Ganderbal with 36,010 votes, he vacated Budgam, where he’d trounced PDP’s Agha Muntazir Mehdi (17,445 votes). What followed wasn’t a grassroots contest but an Agha family showdown. Descendants of revered cleric Agha Syed Yusuf al-Mosavi, they’ve dominated Budgam for decades through mosques, madrasas, and the influential Anjuman-e-Sharie Shiayan. With 1,25,266 voters, including 25,000–31,000 Shias, Budgam is prime Agha territory. Their religious clout transforms elections into loyalty tests, not policy debates. Campaigns hum with sermons on lineage, not plans for jobs or roads. It’s a monopoly dressed as multiplicity: four Aghas, one surname, zero outsiders.
In thriving democracies, parties champion rival visions. Here, NC, PDP, and BJP—bitter foes nationally—field Agha branches like obedient uncles. This isn’t chance; it’s strategy. The family’s sway guarantees bloc votes, sidelining loyal workers who’ve toiled for years. Kashmir’s dynastic roster reads like a roll call: Abdullahs (2–3 Assembly seats plus Lok Sabha), Muftis (1–2 Assembly), and now Budgam’s Aghas, rotating their monopoly. Nationally, it mirrors India’s elite clubs—Gandhis (Congress), Badals (Punjab), Yadavs (UP). A 2023 Lokniti-CSDS study found 30% of MPs from dynasties, double global averages. In J&K, it’s bleaker: 70% of 2024 Assembly winners were political heirs.
The Aghas’ clerical robes amplify their edge. Friday prayers double as rallies; fatwas subtly steer devotees. Voters aren’t citizens weighing manifestos—they’re followers picking the “blessed” cousin. Development lags: Budgam’s 18% unemployment (2024 NSSO), crumbling roads, and stalled irrigation despite Rs 1,200 crore post-370 funds highlight the cost. This fusion of faith and politics erodes accountability. Winners inherit fiefdoms, not mandates. Recall 2014: Mufti Mehbooba’s PDP swept south Kashmir promising “healing touch,” only to deliver floods and unrest.
Article 370’s 2019 scrapping sparked hopes of meritocracy—direct elections, fresh faces, performance-driven governance. Instead, dynasties tightened their grip. The 2024 J&K polls saw 90% re-elected incumbents or kin. Budgam’s spectacle, with even BJP fielding an Agha, shows “outsider” parties bowing to local sultans. Similar scandals echo: Sonam Wangchuk’s Ladakh fasts against broken promises; Shopian’s 2025 panchayat “elections” where one family nabbed 80% of wards. Nationally, Bihar’s 2024 bypolls saw Nitish Kumar’s son anointed heir.
As Aghas crisscross orchards with megaphones, Budgam’s seven lakh residents watch a scripted drama. Choice shrinks to: pious Mehmood or fiery Muntazir? It’s a coronation pageant—which crown fits the family best? Turnout may hit 60% (like 2024’s 63.9%), but it’s fealty, not freedom. A projected vote split—NC Agha (38,000), PDP Agha (18,000), BJP Agha (12,000), independent Agha (8,000), others (10,000)—reveals the family’s lock on power.
True democracy demands disruption. Parties must scout beyond elite salons, rewarding rally organizers over relatives. Voters must reject the family playlist and demand CVs, not chromosomes. Budgam isn’t an outlier; it’s a warning. November 11 tests whether Kashmir chooses genetics or governance. Win or lose, Aghas endure—unless voters script a sequel sans surnames. Until then, elections remain elite feasts: caviar for cousins, crumbs for the crowd.
