Adding a significant dimension to the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections is the government’s decision to invite diplomats from nearly 20 countries, including the United States, France, Germany, and ASEAN nations such as Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, to observe the elections. This move is a clear signal of New Delhi’s confidence in the region’s security and law and order situation, despite recent terror attacks.
Foreign diplomats were warmly welcomed in every nook and corner of Srinagar, highlighting the state’s readiness to showcase its democratic processes. Their visit on September 25 coincided with the polling in key districts like Srinagar, Ganderbal, and Budgam, reinforcing the government’s message of transparency and stability. Despite lower voter turnout in a few places, the overall atmosphere remained positive, with more than 56% voting recorded in the second phase, marking a strong display of public participation.
By opening the elections to international observers, the Modi government aims to project its commitment to democratic processes in Jammu and Kashmir, reinforcing the narrative of normalcy and progress post the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. This diplomatic initiative follows a similar move in 2020 when foreign observers were invited to assess the situation shortly after the region’s special status was revoked. The 2024 elections offer another opportunity for India to showcase its progress in ensuring stability in the region, countering any international skepticism or criticism.
Complying with the Supreme Court Directive
At the core of the 2024 elections is the government’s adherence to the Supreme Court directive to hold the elections by September 30. Not only does this fulfill a legal obligation, but it also demonstrates the government’s commitment to restoring democratic processes in Jammu and Kashmir, a region that has faced significant scrutiny, both domestically and internationally. The timely elections have helped defuse criticism from opposition parties and global commentators who had questioned the delay in restoring democratic governance after the revocation of Article 370.
Fragmenting the Vote in Kashmir
Beyond fulfilling constitutional duties, the government’s electoral strategy has been aimed at fragmenting the vote in the Kashmir Valley, traditionally dominated by the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The rise of new political players like Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), supported by Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI)-backed candidates, has split the vote share previously held by regional heavyweights.
The first two phases of the elections, with over 56% voter turnout in the second phase, have already shown signs of this fragmentation. In constituencies like Kulgam, JeI-backed candidates are offering tough competition to NC-Congress-backed contenders, while independent candidates have gained ground in areas such as Shopian, Wachi, and Tral. This trend is expected to continue in the subsequent phases, adding complexity to the already divided political landscape in the Valley.
The strategy of splitting the vote has weakened the once-dominant regional alliances, leaving the NC-Congress coalition vulnerable. Omar Abdullah, leader of the National Conference, has repeatedly urged voters to avoid “splitting the secular vote,” a clear acknowledgment of the threat posed by smaller parties and independents to the traditional power structure in Kashmir.
BJP’s Stronghold in Jammu
While the Kashmir Valley is witnessing a fractured vote, the BJP continues to enjoy dominance in the Jammu region, where it has historically had strong support. With 43 out of the 90 Assembly seats located in Jammu, the BJP is expected to secure a significant number of seats, consolidating its influence in the region. Jammu, a political bastion for the BJP, remains aligned with the party’s agenda of nationalism and development, themes that resonate strongly with its electorate.
Despite the historical presence of the NC-Congress alliance in the Valley, they have struggled to penetrate the Jammu electorate, where the BJP is expected to dominate. This electoral dynamic enhances the BJP’s chances of leading in terms of overall seat share, tilting the balance in its favor.
The Role of Independent Candidates
Independent candidates, many believed to have the backing of the BJP, have played a pivotal role in shaping the elections. Of the 908 candidates running in the 2024 elections, a significant portion are independents, many of whom are likely to split the vote in a way that benefits the BJP. Opposition leaders, including Omar Abdullah and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, have expressed concerns about the impact of these independents, with Abdullah warning that a vote for an independent is effectively a vote for the BJP.
The presence of these independents could lead to a fractured mandate, where no single party emerges with a clear majority. This scenario could result in the continuation of Lieutenant Governor’s rule in the region, an outcome that would benefit the BJP by allowing it to maintain indirect control over Jammu and Kashmir through the existing administration.
A Fractured Mandate and the Likelihood of LG Rule Continuation
Given the divided vote in Kashmir and the BJP’s solid footing in Jammu, a fractured mandate is one of the most plausible outcomes. Such a result would make it difficult for any party or alliance to form a stable government, likely leading to an extension of Lieutenant Governor’s rule in the Union Territory. Political analysts suggest that the BJP might prefer this outcome, as it allows the party to maintain strategic control over the region through the office of the Lieutenant Governor.
Even in the case of a fractured mandate, the BJP’s political maneuvering ensures that it remains a key player in shaping Jammu and Kashmir’s governance, either directly or indirectly.
A Political Triumph for the Modi-Shah Duo
The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir elections highlight the astuteness of the Modi-Shah political strategy. By fragmenting the vote in Kashmir, maintaining dominance in Jammu, and showcasing the elections to foreign observers, the government has positioned itself to retain control over the region, regardless of the outcome.
Whether the result is a fractured mandate leading to the continuation of Lieutenant Governor’s rule or a coalition that still benefits the BJP, the party stands to gain. The elections not only fulfill the Supreme Court directive but also allow India to project its democratic credentials on the global stage, reinforcing the narrative of stability and governance in Jammu and Kashmir post-Article 370.
