Shabir Ahmad
Recent developments in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) have triggered visible anxiety within Pakistan’s military establishment. The unease follows India’s increasingly assertive rhetoric and strategic posture regarding its territorial claims over POK, sparking fears in Islamabad of a potential Indian “action” in the region.
This reaction is rooted in a changing paradigm in India’s approach toward cross-border security. With India having demonstrated its willingness in recent years to cross the Line of Control (LoC) in pursuit of strategic and security objectives, the Pakistani military is now taking India’s messaging more seriously. In response, Pakistan has resorted to its familiar playbook, issuing strong warnings—including thinly veiled nuclear threats—aimed at deterring any Indian move.
Following the cessation of hostilities earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi clarified that Operation Sindoor—a military campaign initiated after the Pahalgam terror attack—was not concluded but merely paused. This statement was a clear message to both domestic and international audiences that India remains vigilant and reserves the right to resume action if provoked.
India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi have all recently issued strong statements reaffirming India’s sovereign claim over POK. Their comments, made against the backdrop of heightened unrest in the region, underline a significant shift in India’s traditional restraint on the issue.
Minister Singh went a step further by suggesting that a military campaign might not even be necessary to reclaim POK, citing growing unrest and anti-Pakistan sentiments among the local population. Protests erupting across POK—some displaying pro-India slogans and demands for integration—have provided New Delhi with both moral and political leverage.
Pakistan’s sharp reaction to India’s statements is not without reason. The Pakistani military, long accustomed to using nuclear threats to discourage Indian assertiveness, now finds itself unsettled by what it perceives as India’s growing confidence and unpredictability in military affairs.
Adding to this unease are diplomatic optics that Pakistan has interpreted as international support. Recent warm interactions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munir have emboldened Islamabad. However, analysts note that Washington’s renewed interest in Pakistan is driven largely by economic and strategic calculations—such as crypto investments, rare earth minerals, and real estate—not military alignment.
Similarly, a recent defence pact signed between Pakistan and long-time ally Saudi Arabia was touted by Islamabad as a diplomatic coup. However, experts downplay its significance, noting that Saudi Arabia has historically provided Pakistan with financial aid and support, and the latest agreement is more a continuation than a breakthrough.
India’s stronger position on POK is rooted in long-standing policy. In May 1994, both houses of the Indian Parliament passed a unanimous resolution declaring POK as an integral part of India and calling for its eventual reintegration. Successive governments, however, have stopped short of translating that resolution into concrete policy.
That hesitance appears to be changing. The abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which fully integrated Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian Union, was once considered politically unthinkable. But with that bold constitutional move now a reality, speculation is growing that reclaiming POK may be the next step in the Modi government’s agenda.
The current wave of protests and unrest in POK could play a pivotal role in shaping the next phase of India’s strategy. Long neglected by the Pakistani state, the region has seen widespread dissatisfaction over economic stagnation, lack of infrastructure, and exploitation of local resources. In contrast, Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir has made visible strides in development, security, and governance.
New Delhi sees an opportunity in this discontent. By amplifying the voices of those demanding merger with India, the Indian government hopes to challenge Pakistan’s narrative and further isolate Islamabad diplomatically.
While a military operation to reclaim POK remains a complex and sensitive proposition, India is expected to maintain sustained diplomatic, strategic, and psychological pressure on Pakistan. The Modi government’s recent rhetoric signals a broader strategy that combines political signaling with long-term planning.
Importantly, India’s firm stance also sends a message to the international community that it will no longer remain passive on an issue it considers central to its territorial integrity. While Pakistan continues to lean on nuclear threats and diplomatic posturing, India appears poised to pursue a more assertive, multi-pronged approach.
The debate now is not whether India should reclaim POK, but when and how. With growing public support, a favorable geopolitical climate, and strategic momentum on its side, the stage may be set for a significant recalibration of the Kashmir issue—one that could redefine the regional balance in South Asia.
