Hope or Hype in J&K?
On June 30, 2025, a significant political development unfolded in Srinagar at the residence of Sajad Gani Lone, where leaders of the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference (JKPC), People’s Democratic Front (PDF), and the Jamaat-e-Islami-backed Justice and Development Front (JDF) announced the formation of the People’s Alliance for Change (PAC). Led by Sajad Lone, Hakeem Mohammad Yaseen, Shamim Ahmad Thokar, and others, including Imran Reza Ansari, the PAC aims to champion the restoration of Article 370, statehood, and the dignity of Jammu and Kashmir’s people, positioning itself as a counter-narrative to the dominant National Conferences (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). But as the dust settles on this bold announcement, questions linger: Is this alliance a genuine movement for change, or a calculated maneuver in anticipation of shifting political tides? With the possibility of a statehood bill looming and elections—be it assembly or panchayat—on the horizon, the PAC’s emergence demands a closer look at its timing, strategy, and potential impact on Jammu and Kashmir’s fractured political landscape.
The timing of the PAC’s formation raises eyebrows. Jammu and Kashmir’s political arena has been in flux since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which reduced the region to a Union Territory and reshaped its political identity. The NC, under Omar Abdullah, has been vocal about restoring statehood, even hinting at drastic measures like resigning if it ensures progress. Meanwhile, whispers of a statehood bill in the upcoming parliamentary session have fueled speculation about imminent elections. The PAC’s launch, just days before this session, suggests a strategic move to capitalize on the growing demand for statehood and the dissatisfaction with established parties like the NC and PDP. However, as Sajad Lone himself noted, the dissolution of the assembly is not a prerequisite for statehood, challenging the NC’s narrative and positioning the PAC as a proactive force. Yet, the question remains: Is this alliance a spontaneous response to public sentiment, or a calculated bid to consolidate votes before elections, whether for the assembly or the impending panchayat polls?
Sajad Lone, the linchpin of the PAC, is a polarizing figure. A former minister in the PDP-BJP coalition, Lone has navigated the complex terrain of separatism and mainstream politics, inheriting the legacy of his father, Abdul Ghani Lone, who envisioned an autonomous Kashmir. His recent rhetoric, accusing the NC of “systematic sidelining of Kashmiris” and criticizing reservation policies, resonates with a section of the population disillusioned with the NC’s governance. However, Lone’s history of shifting allegiances—most notably his association with the BJP—casts a shadow over his credibility. Critics argue that his ego and opportunistic tendencies could undermine the PAC’s cohesion, especially given the alliance’s diverse ideological makeup. The inclusion of the JDF, backed by a faction of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami, adds complexity. While the JDF’s entry into electoral politics via the PAC signals a shift from its boycott days, its diminished appeal—evident in its candidates’ poor performance in the 2024 assembly elections—limits its electoral heft. Hakeem Yaseen, a seasoned politician, brings experience but lacks the mass base needed to challenge the NC or PDP effectively. Imran Reza Ansari, a senior Shia leader, adds regional clout, but the alliance’s ability to unify these disparate voices into a coherent force remains untested.
The PAC’s formation must also be viewed against the broader political chessboard. The NC, leading a coalition with Congress, secured 42 seats in the 2024 elections, cementing its dominance in the Kashmir Valley. However, it faces governance challenges under Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, who wields significant control in the Union Territory framework. Omar Abdullah’s balancing act—navigating public expectations while operating within India’s constitutional framework—has drawn criticism, with Lone accusing him of being a de facto BJP ally. Meanwhile, the PDP, under Mehbooba Mufti, is quietly rebuilding its base by reabsorbing leaders who defected to parties like the Apni Party. The PDP’s focus on grassroots mobilization positions it as a formidable player, especially in South Kashmir. Smaller parties like Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) and Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, which failed to make significant inroads in 2024, have not yet joined the PAC, raising questions about the alliance’s inclusivity and appeal.
Delhi’s role in this unfolding drama cannot be ignored. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won 29 seats in 2024, has historically benefited from a fragmented opposition. The PAC’s formation could disrupt this dynamic by consolidating anti-NC and anti-PDP votes, but its success hinges on its ability to articulate a clear agenda. The BJP’s dismissive stance on Article 370 restoration—labeling it “daydreaming”—suggests that Delhi may delay statehood to maintain control, especially if it believes a divided opposition serves its electoral interests. The upcoming panchayat elections, critical for grassroots influence, will test the PAC’s organizational strength. The JDF’s focus on local issues like education and health could resonate at the village level, but its association with Jamaat-e-Islami may alienate moderate voters wary of its past.
The PAC’s “Declaration for Change” emphasizes restoring Articles 370 and 35-A, amnesty for political prisoners, and transparent governance. These demands tap into the region’s collective pain, particularly the sense of disempowerment post-2019. Yet, the alliance faces structural challenges. The NC and PDP, despite their flaws, have deep-rooted networks and historical legitimacy. The PAC’s constituent parties, in contrast, have struggled electorally—Lone’s JKPC won only one seat in 2024, and the JDF’s candidates lost their deposits. Moreover, the alliance’s reliance on Lone’s leadership raises concerns about sustainability. His combative style may galvanize supporters but risks alienating potential allies like the AIP or Apni Party, which could dilute its impact.
As Jammu and Kashmir stands at a crossroads, the PAC’s emergence signals a yearning for an alternative to the NC-PDP duopoly. Its success, however, depends on navigating a treacherous political landscape. If the statehood bill materializes, the alliance must articulate a vision that transcends rhetoric and addresses practical issues like unemployment, education, and security. The panchayat elections offer a litmus test: can the PAC mobilize at the grassroots level, or will it falter under the weight of its own ambitions? For now, the alliance is a bold gamble—a potential catalyst for change or a fleeting mirage in a region weary of broken promises. As all eyes turn to the parliamentary session, the PAC must prove it is more than a coalition of convenience. Only time will tell if it can reshape Jammu and Kashmir’s future or merely add another chapter to its turbulent political saga.
