Introduction: A New Political Era in J&K
The announcement of assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) would have traditionally been a major political event, bringing with it the usual fanfare, debates, and promises associated with electoral politics. However, in the unique context of post-2019 J&K, where the region’s political landscape has been drastically altered by the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into two union territories, the significance of these elections has been profoundly transformed. What once would have been a contest for control over a full-fledged state’s governance has now become a struggle for power in what many see as a mere shadow of its former self—a “large municipal council” disguised as a legislature.
The 2019 Reorganization and Its Aftermath
The seismic shift in J&K’s political status began on August 5, 2019, when the Indian government, under the J&K Reorganisation Act, divided the state into two union territories: Ladakh, without an elected assembly, and Jammu and Kashmir, with one. This move not only stripped the region of its statehood but also of the special autonomy it had enjoyed under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. For many in J&K, this was not just a political reorganization but a demotion—a loss of status that was unprecedented in India’s history.
Union territories, by definition, do not enjoy the same powers as states. They are more directly controlled by the central government, with the Lieutenant Governor (LG) appointed by the center wielding significant authority. In J&K, the LG’s sweeping powers over the legislative assembly underscore the limits of the autonomy that the new legislature will have. The electorate and the political class in J&K are acutely aware of these constraints, leading to a sense of cautious optimism at best, and disillusionment at worst, as the elections approach.
The Dilemma for Regional Political Parties
For J&K’s regional political players, particularly the two main dynastic parties—the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—the upcoming elections present a unique dilemma. These parties, which have historically governed a full-fledged state with a degree of autonomy, are now faced with contesting for a legislature with significantly reduced powers. The realization that they are now vying for control over what some perceive as a glorified municipal council rather than a true state assembly is nothing short of a “dharam sankat” (moral dilemma) for these leaders.
The political narrative in J&K has long been centered on the region’s special status and autonomy. The abrogation of Article 370 has fundamentally altered this narrative, leaving regional parties in a difficult position. On one hand, abandoning the rhetoric of restoring Article 370 could be seen as a betrayal of their ideological roots and the aspirations of their supporters. On the other hand, clinging too tightly to this rhetoric risks alienating an electorate that is increasingly pragmatic and weary of promises that may never be fulfilled.
The Electorate’s Changing Mood
Since 2019, there has been a growing sense of realism among the electorate in J&K. The abrogation of Article 370 and the reorganization of the state are widely seen as irreversible changes. This has led to a sinking realization among voters that the hands of the clock cannot be turned back, as Indira Gandhi famously said in a different context. The loss of statehood and autonomy is a reality that many have reluctantly accepted, even if they continue to harbor resentment and anger towards the central government.
This changing mood is reflected in the electorate’s expectations from the upcoming elections. There is a growing sense that the new legislature, with its limited powers, will be unable to deliver on the grand promises of the past. Instead, voters are likely to focus on more immediate and tangible issues, such as development, governance, and the provision of basic services. This shift in priorities could lead to a more pragmatic and issue-based election campaign, in contrast to the emotive and identity-driven politics of the past.
The Future of Statehood and Autonomy
One of the central questions hanging over the upcoming elections is whether the restoration of J&K’s statehood is on the horizon. While the central government has indicated that statehood could be restored in the future, there is widespread skepticism in J&K about whether this will actually happen, and if so, under what conditions. The restoration of autonomy, meanwhile, appears to be an even more remote possibility, given the political and constitutional hurdles involved.
For the regional parties, this uncertainty presents a significant challenge. On one hand, they must navigate the immediate task of contesting the elections and trying to secure a mandate from the electorate. On the other hand, they must also consider the long-term implications of their actions and positions on the question of statehood and autonomy. How they balance these competing demands will be crucial in determining their electoral prospects and their role in the post-election political landscape.
Conclusion: A Symbolic Contest
In the final analysis, the upcoming assembly elections in J&K are likely to be more symbolic than substantive. The newly constituted legislature will have limited powers, and the real authority will continue to reside with the centrally-appointed LG and the central government. For the regional parties, the challenge will be to remain relevant in this new political reality, while also staying true to their ideological moorings and the aspirations of their supporters.
The electorate, meanwhile, is likely to approach the elections with a mix of cautious optimism and resignation. While the elections may not bring about significant change in the power dynamics of the region, they will nonetheless be an important indicator of the political mood in J&K and the direction in which the region is heading. As the political players gear up for the contest, they would do well to remember that while the legislature may be powerless, the aspirations of the people it represents are not.
